Archive for the ‘Peak oil and climate change’ Category

American Chernobyl by Hervé Kempf

Monday, June 21st, 2010

An uncontrollable industrial catastrophe, a worm-eaten system controlled by a rigid nomenklatura, a dynamic leader who wants to change things: doesn’t that remind you of something? Yes, of course: Chernobyl, the Soviet Communist Party, Gorbachev.

Let’s recall the 1980s: during that era, people knew that the USSR was doing poorly, but who would have bet a franc or a dollar on its rapid collapse? Still less so, given that the country had found an appealing and modern leader. From the outset, Gorbachev committed to vigorous reforms (glasnost and perestroika) even as he changed the USSR’s foreign policy through detente with Ronald Reagan.

And then Chernobyl exploded. The catastrophe revealed the system’s fragility. In 1989, the Berlin Wall crumbled; in 1991, the USSR was dissolved. Russia entered a decade of hard economic recession.

People today know that the United States isn’t doing well, but who would bet a Euro or a Yuan on that country’s rapid collapse? Still less so, given that the country has elected an appealing and modern leader. From the outset, he committed to vigorous reforms (the stimulus and the healthcare law) even as he acknowledged that the United States could no longer run everything in the world.

And then Deepwater Horizon exploded… The unstoppable gushing of oil provoked is proving to be a historic environmental catastrophe. It simultaneously demonstrates the incompetence of big private companies and (after a first failure during Hurricane Katrina, in 2005) the state’s inability to master the situation.

Like Chernobyl, Deepwater Horizon derives its meaning from its context – that of a society dominated by a capitalist oligarchy that rejects any in-depth change in spite of the financial disaster for which it is responsible. Wall Street remains as solidly attached to its privileges, as were Soviet dignitaries.

Moreover, politicians, advertising and media maintain the fiction that the American dream can endure without disruption. But a pillar of American power has been shaken: that of cheap energy. Mr. Obama tries to make his fellow citizens understand: “What we can predict is that the availability of fossil fuel is going to be diminishing; that it’s going to get more expensive to recover; that there are going to be environmental costs that our children, our grandchildren and our great-grandchildren are going to have to bear,” he said in a June 13 Politico.com <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38468_Page2.html>interview.

The end of cheap oil is the end of the “American way of life.” Will the United States stand up to the challenge? One may think they will. Or not.

Hervé Kempf is the author of How the Rich Are Destroying the Earth

Now you can join The Gardening Party!

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

There seems to be a new political kid on the block: The Gardening Party! Its manifesto is a fertile blend of Transition and organic/permaculture ideas:

“This new, vibrant and earth-centric powerhouse for change will be known as The Gardening Party (TGP). Its policies will be driven by the seriousness of the environmental challenges which lie ahead: the intertwined threats of climate change and ‘peak oil’, resource depletion, destruction of natural habitats, global pollution, and the planet-wide erosion of biodiversity.

“My party’s ambitions will bring new hope to every corner of the earth where people are passionate about growing plants, especially to eat. Our far-reaching policies, some radical and revolutionary, are born of a dynamic crucible of green ideas into which has been poured the latest and best knowledge from organic, biodynamic and vegan-organic gardening, permaculture, and the horticultural, agricultural and social sciences. For some, hard and unpopular choices lie ahead. My ‘big shed’ will welcome input from all, but TGP’s aim is to never again let the direction of our gardening nation be dictated by vested interests and self-interested celebrity.”

You can read the rest of this absorbing piece here.

Conning the Climate: Inside the Carbon-Trading Shell Game by Mark Schapiro

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

This is a tremendous article in Harper’s Magazine which shows what is really going on with carbon trading.

FITs, PV and the UK: The Bigger Picture by Miguel Mendonça

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

A response to the current feed-in tariff/ PV debate in the UK

If the question is, what is the cheapest method of saving a ton of carbon today, then solar PV is not going to be the answer. If the question is instead, how do we solve the challenge of sustainability, then solar PV has a major part to play. Therefore, I do not have much to say directly on cost arguments. With tongue in cheek however, I might invite all those who oppose solar PV on the grounds of cost to spend the next year buying only the cheapest food, alcohol, clothing and household goods. They may quickly come to the conclusion that value is not found in cost alone.

Imagine if we had never invested in computer or mobile phone technology because of cost. And that is the point – some things are worth paying more for because they make our lives better, and we can all participate and help push society in a new direction. If ever there was a need to do so, and a time to do it, it’s now. Achieving true sustainability requires shifts in almost everything we do. This level of undertaking, in scale and complexity, means teamwork, a sense of common purpose, and unleashing all our human ingenuity, energy and goodwill. People must be facilitated, empowered and engaged – willing and able to be a part of the solution. As things stand it is hard for most of us avoid simply being a part of the problem. We talk of “fighting climate change”, but it is really ourselves, our beliefs, our systems and our lifestyles that we are in conflict with. Politicians know this, and therefore find it particularly difficult to come up with solutions that are both politically deliverable and truly effective, especially when compromised by the power and influence of corporate lobbyists.

But this is where FITs come into play. Solar panels and wind turbines in the cityscape and landscape are adverts for action. They demonstrate that we are implementing working solutions. Other countries are leading the way. They are building new industries, delivering energy security, and safeguarding business continuity and local authority service delivery. This is something that each nation has to do; it is not optional. Without underpinning our economies with renewable energy, we cannot be sustainable. A fossil fuel and nuclear energy system is inherently unsustainable as it runs on finite resources, vulnerable to sudden cost escalations and political gamesmanship. This can never be the foundation of a safe and stable economy, and therefore society. Local, small-scale generation – and PV has ease, efficiency and rapidly falling costs in its favour – allows people to become aware of and engaged in sustainable energy production, saving and use. That is progress.

Whilst it is a risky strategy to push all this on the basis of the financial incentives – because you are effectively saying ‘money is good’, not so much ‘sustainability is good’ – it is still a strong driver, and in this economic climate people are looking for good investments. What we require therefore, and many major investment banks have attested to this, are clear policy signals. But we need signals which point all of society in the same direction, and help sustainability become politically, economically, socially and culturally embedded. Over time, the quantitative change – the number of sustainable investments and activities of all kinds – can become a qualitative change, and we can create the opportunity for more ‘sustainable’ social values and a sense of positive ethical responsibility to emerge. This is not idealism, this is practicality.

The main problem with this theory of change however, is that it will probably take too long. It is difficult to imagine that we have time to turn the cultural tanker around. Our values are rooted in self interest rather than social goods, all of which is politically and economically driven and reinforced. A vicious circle. The last thing on the political agenda today is creating policy which demonstrates care for those distant from us in space and time. This seems to upset, among others, people who are desperate for work today, and particular sections of the media. And both business and politics are, perhaps more than ever, almost pathologically short-term in their interests. It is simply not a system set up to ensure our future, and our efforts so far cannot possibly add up to enough in time, on climate change, biodiversity loss or resource security.

To make the breakthrough, past the sceptics, deniers and vested interests, we therefore need a total commitment from government on the sustainability agenda. Business and the public must receive the right incentives and signals, the messages which continually reinforce the fact that we are all going to take on this challenge together. We need an end to mixed messages, and a shift to policy which favours the long-term needs of the many over the short-term wants of the few. Among other things, this means prioritising the transition to an energy system running on free, benign, domestic fuel.

Feed-in tariffs are a proven method of rapidly delivering the largest volume of this renewable energy at the lowest cost, and they build in a bigger stakeholder group for greening the economy and creating a sustainable society. Green industries and jobs, tax and subsidy shifting, new technologies and markets, new approaches in agriculture, biological carbon sequestration, water, transport, the built environment, industry and waste – these areas and more can help create economic opportunities which simultaneously reinforce support for a green economy, drive down prices, breed more innovation, raise awareness, and create more economic opportunities, and so on. A virtuous circle. This is the big picture, and it is what really matters today. This is a viable political strategy that can have enormous positive impacts at the social and cultural level, and create a sustainable economy. There are plenty of things in the world which are worth paying more for, and this is one of them.

9 March 2010
Miguel Mendonça is the co-author with Herbert Girardet of A Renewable World: energy, ecology, equality

Now It’s Time For The Climate Deniers To Answer Some Questions

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

Here’s a situation you might be familiar with: you are doing something at work that you are particularly good at, having gained those skills through experience, and learning from your mistakes. Along comes a person who you know of by reputation to be a bit of a seen-it-all, done-it-all, bought the t-shirt; they always insist they can do everyone’s job better than the specialist can. Most of the time the specialists politely decline his “help”, after which he insists that he could have still done it better and brays whenever the specialist makes a mistake.

This person rudely interrupts you while you are in the middle of a particularly difficult piece of work and, true to form, tells you to let him have a go – he is bound to make a better fist of it than you can. Instead of politely declining you tell him to go ahead – take on the whole job – but on one condition: if they make a mistake then they have to take the blame; all of it.

What do you think they would do?

What would Viscount Monckton of Brenchley do? What about Timothy Ball, Ian Plimer or Fred Singer? How would Patrick Michaels or Stephen McIntyre deal with this situation?

If you recognise some of these names, then you will also know that they are currently some of the most vocal, yet also most ill-informed people involved in whatever climate debate remains, and they all revel in their playing the climate change denial circuit. So come on guys, put yourselves on the line and tell us what you will do as the climate keeps changing?

Hang on a minute! What do I mean the climate is still changing? It’s been a cold, cold winter where I live, and 2009 wasn’t the global heatwave some meteorological organisations were warning against – surely the warming has stopped. Now, this is where it gets complicated, because among the list of people above, and quite a few more besides, there is a mixture of those who say the climate is not changing, those that agree that the climate is changing but humanity is not responsible, and those that agree the climate is changing and humanity is responsible for a very small bit of it. Ignoring that the overwhelming body of scientific evidence shows civilized human activity to be responsible for at least 90% of the observed change, you have to wonder what motivates the deniers across such a range of opinions: is it money, fame, notoriety, ideology or perhaps just a bloody-minded desire to hang onto traditional views? Actually, it’s all of these and more; but again, this isn’t what really matters as far as this article is concerned.

What will they do?

Let’s accept that the climate is changing: there is even more certainty of this than the link with human activity, through the observations of a vast network of atmospheric physicists, meteorologists, botanists, marine chemists, naturalists and even people like you and me who notice the small but subtle and progressive changes taking place in our gardens, parks and countryside. This certainty is, to all intents and purposes, unequivocal – you would have to be an extremely deluded person to deny it is happening at all. Quite how much it will change and what effects it will have are still open to debate, which is why climate science lies at a critical point in guiding future policy and, more importantly, human behaviour in general. But it’s changing, and it’s fair to assume it will keep changing: the first decade of the twenty-first century was the warmest decade since empirical measurements began in the mid nineteenth century; 2009 was, surprisingly for many, the joint second warmest year in recorded history, and 2010 may be hotter than even 1998.

As the climate changes, then the natural biological and chemical processes that regulate all life on Earth will undergo changes, some of them will be damped by negative feedback, but a significant number – particularly those affected by rainfall, ground cover and ice – will be drawn into positive feedback loops, such as those I described in a recent article. These types of changes rarely settle down until a significant, new plateau has been reached: it might be no rainforest in the Amazon, no ice in the Arctic, or it might be a sixth great extinction of life. We honestly don’t know.

But the climate change deniers seem to have it sorted. They keep telling those that are prepared to listen that it’s not our fault, and we don’t have to do anything that might damage the economy, our consumer culture or their reputations. Keep denying and everything will be ok. Meanwhile, the climate is still changing, we remain in thrall of their comforting message and…

Sorry to be so bleak, but you can deny as much as you like that something is your fault; you can walk into the road, safe in the knowledge that when the car hits you it will not have been your fault; you can be carried to your grave, replete with the inscription, “It wasn’t your fault!”

But it still happened.

So come on Christopher, Tim, Ian, Fred, Phil and Steve; you think you know best. What are you going to do!


Keith Farnish is the author of “Time’s Up! An Uncivilized Solution to a Global Crisis”, which is published by Green Books. He is also the founder of The Earth Blog and The Unsuitablog. He lives in Essex, UK, with his wife, two children and a much-loved garden.

Cloud cuckoo land

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

“People all over the world are starting to wake up!”

these words were ringing in my ears as I walked away from Roberto Perez’s talk in Totnes about how Cuba had managed to feed it’s entire population using mostly organic and permaculture methods. I had Steve Bell like visions in my head of people coming out of their zombie state and their eyes opening to the reality of a world where until very recently a £100 worth of capital could get you £8,000 worth of credit (I don’t know maybe you still can?) where we need 3 planets each to keep up with our consumer lifestyles.

Cuba had to find out the hard way. When the Soviet Union collapsed, virtually all imports, into Cuba ceased. Any ships landing in Cuba were barred from USA ports for 6 months (first offence and a year 2nd offence.) Cuba had the most industrialised agriculture in Central America based on the old plantation crops of tobacco, coffee and sugar – all good nourishing crops! The land which had been cleared of forest was first given to the rich elite and later mostly appropriated by the state. This land is now being massively reforested and much of it returned to grow food crops. All the previous cash crops were heavily reliant on fuel, pesticides and chemical fertilisers – this was reduced at least tenfold virtually overnight.

Now Cuba had to come away from the cloud cuckoo land existence based on finite supplies of cheap oil and the chemical pesticides and fertilisers manufactured using oil. They entered a ‘Special period’ (we might call it a transition period) much like this country was faced when we went into World War 2. Food had to be carefully rationed and apportioned. Nutritionists worked out minimum daily requirements of food; every scrap of land was brought into cultivation. All this and much more happened in World War 2 here – the dig for victory campaign, the creative use of food, the utilisation of wild foods. Many of us have heard or experienced directly the stories of rationing during the war and try to imagine what it must have been like to have only 4oz of butter each a week 4ozs of bacon, 3.5 ozs of cooked bacon or ham, 12ozs of sugar and 2 eggs. (I wonder what happened to the vegans?) Of course people started to grow their own food and collect from the natural environment.

In Cuba most people were living in an urban environment, in Havana today every spare scrap of land is a garden, roof tops, window boxes, demolition sites, everywhere there is food being grown and of course the transportation to the market is often measured in feet (well, metres I suppose)

Most people in Cuba were not at all used to growing food – they were basically plantation workers growing all those cash crops. They had to change everything it is a learning experience which is still continuing and they are still faced with enormous challenges. They are still embargoed by the USA and that continues to make life extremely difficult for them as ideally they would trade in their ‘bio-region’ to exchange food that they cannot grow – potatoes, apples and other cooler climate crops. They have had to learn how to plough with oxen once more as tractor fuel is not only expensive but the tractors have compacted the soils so badly that many of them have to be painstakingly reconstructed by careful use of composts and worm casts.

But this is more like the world will have to be – the real world, not squandering it’s natural resources but using them carefully – not reliant on high tech fixes but using the technology where appropriate; a careful mixture of the old with the new. A photo voltaic system can power a radio, some lights maybe a small TV but not a plasma screen. Communities are more localised – Cuba now has 54 universities and the health system to rival anywhere in the world, without all the access to modern medicines – instead they grow their own medicinal plants and doctors have been trained by local healers.

Roberto said that the signs were promising – people all over the world are waking up and finding themselves in cloud cuckoo land and with the financial world being finally exposed for the house of cards that it is now is the time for us to start a compost heap, to pick up a hoe and start to cultivate some land; and this is the perfect time to start. I always think that September – October is the time to start you growing year. Get your garlic planted, plan for those broad beans to over winter, and look at sowing all kinds of oriental salad crops, autumn onions. Get you ground covered and growing for the winter and then the spring start will just be a natural continuation. Are we the ones in cloud cuckoo land? I don’t think so!

Nicky Scott